« Critical Assessment of Energy Modelling Approaches for African Contexts »
Ce working paper a été rédigé par :
Kodjovi A. Plakoo (CMA, Mines Paris – PSLet African Institute for Sustainable Energy and Systems Analysis, Senegal)
Nadia Maïzi (CMA, Mines Paris – PSL et African Institute for Sustainable Energy and Systems Analysis, Senegal)
Anteneh G. Dagnachew (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, the Netherlands, Copernicus institute, Utrecht University, the Netherlands et African Institute for Sustainable Energy and Systems Analysis, Senegal)
Henri Waisman (Institut Du Développement Durable Et Des Relations Internationales, Paris et African Institute for Sustainable Energy and Systems Analysis, Senegal)
Benard M. Wabukala (Faculty of Economics, Energy and Management Science, Makerere University Business School, Kampala, Uganda et African Institute for Sustainable Energy and Systems Analysis, Senegal)
Abraham Edo (Department of Water Management, Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands et African Institute for Sustainable Energy and Systems Analysis, Senegal)
Mots-clés : energy modelling, Africa, energy transition, energy access, informal economy, development, modelling tools
Extrait :
« Most energy models applied in Africa were built for industrialised economies. To ensure that these tools produce policy-relevant strategies, we need to understand to what extent they actually capture the specific conditions of African energy systems.
We assembled a structured inventory of 66 modelling applications across 54 African countries, developed during the period 2010-2025. The dominant tools, including OSeMOSYS, LEAP, TIMES, and MESSAGE, were all developed in Europe or North America, and over half the studies in our sample are led by non-African institutions. We assessed how well these studies capture the features that are relevant for African energy planning, and the mismatches are striking. The informal economy, which provides livelihoods for over 80% of workers in Sub-Saharan Africa, appears in just 9% of studies. Biomass and charcoal, the principal cooking fuels for hundreds of millions of people, are addressed in only 21%. Power supply reliability features in just 30%. Meanwhile, 85% of modelling exercises remain disconnected from policy processes, and few are part of a sustained effort owned by local institutions.
These gaps reflect structural forces, among them funding dependencies, data scarcity, limited local capacity, and a disconnect between modelling and decision-making, that reinforce one another. Closing them requires a shift from tool-driven to problem-driven modelling, led from within Africa.
This paper maps the gaps, examines their causes, and lays out the analytical agenda for AISESA’s Cluster 1 programme on Energy Transition Pathways and Sustainable Development. »