“Electrification in a fragmented world:
navigating climate, resources and geopolitics”
UNFCCC Side Event COP31
UN Climate Change Conference
November 13th 2026
3pm – 4.30pm
UNFCCC Pavilion SE
SIDE EVENT Room 2 – DALYAN
Antalya Expo Center, Aksu – Antalya
This side event is organized by ParisTech, through its Chair Prospective modeling for sustainable development directed by the Centre for Applied Mathematics (CMA) from Mines Paris – PSL and the Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), France.
Electrification reshapes energy systems and intensifies pressures on resources, supply chains and global cooperation. We examine how integrated scenarios, economic and geopolitical reconfigurations can design resilient, secure and socially acceptable climate strategies in fragmented geopolitics.
We will address the following questions:
- Batteries and critical materials: can Europe rebuild a value chain that reduces its dependence on China without displacing extractivism elsewhere?
- Cars and industry: from combustion to electric, can climate policy and reindustrialisation go together?
- Planetary boundaries: so far electrification has been measured by carbon alone. What would it take to keep it within planetary boundaries?
This side event aims to provide a forum for high-quality exchanges to establish a dialogue between policymakers, experts and scientists. It will contribute to the reflection on the direction of public and private research strategies, in support of climate negotiations.
Panel :
“Electrification, a New Arena of Rivalry”
Pr. Nadia Maïzi (Mines Paris – PSL, CMA and AISESA; IPCC Lead Author; The Transition Institute 1.5)
The Hormuz shock shows that electrification is now a security issue as much as a climate one, but it shifts our dependencies from straits to supply chains: critical minerals, phosphates, sulfur and Chinese clean tech. In a fragmented world, only a systemic approach can make it resilient, secure and socially acceptable.
“The geoeconomics of electrification: from resource security to industrial competition”
Pauline Bucciarelli (Mines Paris – PSL, CMA; The Transition Institute 1.5; La Bocconi University)
Electrification, a key pillar of global decarbonisation, is intensifying pressure on mineral resources and reshaping strategic dependencies. These dependencies extend beyond access to raw materials to encompass technological and industrial capabilities, as illustrated by the battery value chain. Amid rising geopolitical tensions, these vulnerabilities are prompting advanced economies to pursue more interventionist industrial policies. Focusing on the European Union, this presentation provides an overview of these evolving strategies and the tensions they raise between sustainability, economic security and industrial competitiveness.
“Climate transition, industrial transitions: Informing Green Industrial Policies through prospective modelling”
Augustin Danneaux, (CIRED)
Electrification relies on technologies whose value chains are highly concentrated in China: photovoltaic panels, batteries and electric vehicles. Motivated by economic growth, as well as concerns over security of supply and competitiveness of incumbent industries, governments are increasingly turning to green industrial policies. Drawing on recent research, this presentation explores how different industrial policy packages may shape production and, in turn, broader macroeconomic impacts.
Edi Assoumou (Mines Paris – PSL, CMA)
About the speakers :
Nadia Maïzi is Director of The Transition Institute 1.5, the Centre for Applied Mathematics (CMA Mines Paris – PSL) and the Chair in Prospective Modelling for Sustainable Development, where she has initiated research and teaching activities relating to modelling for the economy, energy and climate, reconciling short- and long-term objectives. She is also a co-author of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report.
Pauline Bucciarelli is a postdoctoral researcher at Mines Paris – PSL, where she conducts her research within The Transition Institute 1.5 (TTI.5), an initiative dedicated to the design of the transition. Based at the Centre for Applied Mathematics (CMA), her work focuses on the challenges of European reindustrialization in the context of the low-carbon transition, with a particular focus on the battery value chain.
Augustin Danneaux is a PhD student at CIRED, Paris. His research explores how climate mitigation transforms economic structures, with a particular focus on the interactions between industry, international trade and decarbonisation. He uses prospective modelling to assess the economic implications of climate and industrial policies and inform policy design.
